EUROPEAN FAMILY SUMMER CAMP — EVIDENCE-BASED FOUNDER PACKET
Research snapshot: 14 August 2026

CURRENT DECISION
Conditional build. Do not select a city or collect customer money yet.
Run a same-scope written-bid bake-off between:
1) Cascais–Oeiras coast (premium track)
2) Porto–Foz–Matosinhos (economic track)

CURRENT PRODUCT
- 4 July–1 August 2027
- Camp 5–30 July
- 18 families / approximately 30 children
- Ages 6–12
- Mon–Thu 13:30–21:30; Fri 13:30–18:30
- Paid validation only after legal/MoR clearance

WHY THE DATES CHANGED
Portuguese public preschool and first-cycle classes run through 30 June 2027.
A July start avoids relying on staff/facilities before the local school year ends.

PUBLIC-EVIDENCE FINDINGS
- Official IPDJ registry evidence was located for multiple potential camp operators.
- Public normal-hours camps generally finish around 16:00–18:30.
- No public supplier was found advertising the proposed 21:30 finish.
- The late-hours program therefore remains a derived cost range pending a custom bid.
- Porto public 2BR housing anchors are materially lower than Cascais.
- Neither city publicly proves an 18-unit July 2027 cluster.
- Public demand statistics establish a plausible audience, not willingness to pay.
- Free waitlists and Instagram engagement count as zero for the launch gate.

BASE ECONOMICS
Cascais:
- Family of four test price: €15,400
- Revenue at 18 families: €263,400
- Contribution margin: 35.7%
- First-year result: €15,627
- Full first-year break-even: approximately 15 families
- Housing cap: €3,650/unit average
- Camp cap: €1,600/child

Porto:
- Family of four test price: €13,900
- Revenue at 18 families: €237,600
- Contribution margin: 41.9%
- First-year result: €23,100
- Full first-year break-even: approximately 14 families
- Housing cap: €2,500/unit average
- Camp cap: €1,500/child

HARD FAILURE CASE
Cascais high-cost assumptions produce an 11.1% contribution margin and a first-year loss of about €70,260.
Do not launch below a 30% contribution margin or with first-year break-even above 15 families.

OPERATING STRUCTURE TO TEST
- U.S. brand: brand, marketing, product/community design; no direct fund collection before legal clearance.
- Portuguese RNAVT organizer/MoR: customer contract, payments, refunds, package duties, tax and supplier contracting.
- IPDJ-registered camp operator: child program, staff, safeguarding, meals, venue and camp insurance.
- Registered/insured specialist vendors: transport, surf and other activities.

PAID DEMAND STANDARD
- €250 fully refundable, credited reservation
- Collected/held/refunded by compliant MoR after legal clearance
- 10 active paid reservations in 30 days
- 20 in 60 days
- 30 minimum / 36 target in 90 days
- 15 signed families by 31 January 2027
- Cleared, unique, active payments only
- No free signup, like, DM, survey response or subsidized insider reservation counts

FILES
1. Evidence_Based_Founder_Report.pdf / .docx
2. Public_Supplier_Discovery_and_RFP_Pack.pdf / .docx
3. Fixed_Scope_Legal_Review_Brief.pdf / .docx
4. Paid_Reservation_Validation_Protocol.pdf / .docx
5. Evidence_Based_Financial_Model.xlsx
6. Evidence_Ledger.csv
7. Source_Register.csv
8. Decision_Gates.csv
9. README.txt
10. SHA256SUMS.txt

STATUS
No supplier inquiry, legal engagement, insurance submission, reservation, contract, booking, payment or private-account access occurred.
The next decision-grade evidence must come from written bids, fixed-scope professional reviews, bindable insurance terms, exact housing inventory and active paid/refundable reservations.